Defending Yourself Against a Market Correction

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

The recent increase in the stock market is making a lot of investors nervous about the possibility of a significant correction.  I am frequently asked what the market will do over the next few months.  In reality, no one can predict market performance, especially in the short term. Your best defense against a volatile stock market is to create a financial plan and an asset allocation that is appropriate for your financial situation and time horizon.

If your current asset allocation is in line with your financial goals, there’s probably no need to make major adjustments to your current portfolio.  Your asset allocation defines the percentage of different types of investments such as U.S. stock mutual funds, international funds, bond funds and CDs that are held in your portfolio.  You should establish an asset allocation that corresponds with the timeframe of when your money will be needed.   Investments in the stock market should be limited to money that isn’t needed for at least 5 to 10 years.  Keep money that may be needed for emergencies and short term expenses in safe, fixed income investments like bank accounts, CDs or short term bond funds.

The stock market is inherently volatile and there will be years with negative returns.  However, over long periods of time the market has trended upward with average annual returns on the S&P 500 exceeding 9% (approximately 7% when adjusted for inflation).  It’s important to consider your emotional risk tolerance in establishing your asset allocation.   You may have the time horizon to have a significant portion of your portfolio in stocks but you may not have the emotional tolerance.  Your asset allocation may be too risky if you are tempted to sell whenever the market goes down or you are continually worried about your investments in the stock market.

Establishing an asset allocation that meets your situation can help your ride out fluctuations in the stock market more effectively than trying to anticipate movements in the market.  It’s impossible to time the market and a short term increase is just as likely to occur as a drop in the market.   Although you want to avoid timing the market, you should rebalance your portfolio on an annual basis to maintain your target asset allocation.  Additionally, you will want to adjust your target allocation over time as your financial situation changes and you move through different phases of life.

Keeping other areas of your financial life in order can also help you through a major market adjustment.   It’s essential to maintain an emergency fund of at least 3 to 6 months of expenses,  make a habit of spending less than you earn, and  save at least 10 -15% of your income.

Rather than focusing on where the market is headed and what the financial pundits are predicting, maintain an appropriate asset allocation and keep your financial affairs in order.

Variable Annuity Not Magic Solution

office pictures may 2012 002While driving home recently I was disconcerted by another commercial spouting false information and preying on investor fear.  This commercial was exaggerating the danger and volatility of the stock market by implying most investors lost millions in the 2008 and 2009 market crash.  In reality if you were invested in the stock market from 2006 to 2016 you would have seen a 65% increase in your stock portfolio.  If you didn’t sell when the market dropped, you would have experienced a reasonable return rather than a loss on your investment.   Commercials like this stir up fear and anxiety then promise the perfect solution to market volatility – the magic to provide great returns without taking risk.

There is no miracle product that is going to provide you with high returns without risk.  If it sounds too good to be true, it is!  A basic concept of investing is the trade-off between risk and return.  If you want more return you will have to absorb greater risk.  If you want a risk free investment you will be limited to CD’s and US government bonds that pay very low interest rates.   If you want to earn higher returns you will need to take on some risk and invest part of your portfolio in the stock market.

The mystery product in commercials and ads that promise high returns with no risk is often a variable annuity.  While on occasion the use of an annuity may be appropriate for a portion of your portfolio, most variable annuities come with significant disadvantages.   A variable annuity is an insurance vehicle that invests your money into separate accounts similar to mutual funds.   Annuities are complex insurance contracts that are commonly sold on commission, with built-in fees and significant restrictions on when and how you can withdraw your money.    Earnings on money invested in a variable annuity grow tax deferred but are taxed at regular income tax rates when withdrawn.

Insurance salespeople influence you to buy annuities by promising protection from market volatility.  Basically, in addition to paying the typical fees and commissions, you can purchase an insurance rider to guard against a drop in the market.  However, this insurance usually only applies to a death benefit or the base amount used to calculate an annual income stream.   If you think a variable annuity is appropriate for your situation make sure you fully understand the product’s benefits and restrictions before investing.   Also consider an annuity with no or a low commission and without restrictions on when and how you can access your money.

A better option for managing market volatility may be to invest in a diversified portfolio that supports your time horizon.   Avoid the need or temptation to withdraw money from the stock market when it’s down.  Invest money needed in the short term in safe investments and limit your stock market investments to long term money.

Volatile Market Good Time for Retirement Savings

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

This is a great time to maximize your retirement contributions.  Not only will you save money on taxes but you can buy stock mutual funds on sale.  The one year return on the S&P 500 is down about 8% and market volatility is likely to continue throughout the year.

Dollar cost averaging is a great way to invest during a volatile market and it is well suited for contributing to your retirement plans.  With dollar cost averaging you invest a set amount every month or quarter up to your annual contribution limit.  When the stock market is low you buy more shares and when the market is high you buy fewer shares.  You can take advantage of dips in the market and avoid buying too much at, inopportune times when the market is high.

Ideally, the goal is to maximize contributions to your tax advantaged retirement plans however, this isn’t always possible.  Prioritize by contributing to your employer’s 401k plan up to the match, if your employer matches your contributions.   Your next priority is usually to maximize contributions to your Roth and then resume contributions to your 401k, 403b, 457 or self-employment plan.   Contributions to traditional employer plans are made with before tax dollars and taxable at regular income tax rates when withdrawn.  Roth contributions are made with after tax dollars and are tax free when withdrawn in retirement.   Some employers have begun to offer a Roth option with their 401k or 403b plans.

For 2015 and 2016 the maximum you can contribute to an IRA is $5,500 plus a catch-up provision of $1,000, if you were 50 or older by the last day of the year.  You have until the due date of your return, not including extensions, to make a contribution – which is April 18 for 2015. There are income limits on who can contribute to a Roth IRA.  In 2015, eligibility to contribute to a Roth IRA phases out at a Modified Adjusted Income (MAGI) of $116,000 to $131,000 for single filers and $183,000 to $193,000 for joint filers.  In 2016 the phase out is $117,000 to $132,000 for single filers and $184,000 to $194,000 for joint filers.

Your 401k contribution limits for both 2015 and 2016 are $18,000 plus a catch-up provision of $6,000, if you were 50 or over by the end of the year.  If you are employed by a non-profit organization, contact your benefits office for contribution limits on your plan.

If you are self-employed maximize your Simple (Savings Investment Match Plan for Employees) or SEP (Simplified Employee Pension Plan) and if you don’t already have a plan consider starting one to help defer taxes until retirement.

Regardless of your situation take advantage of retirement plans to defer or reduce income taxes on your retirement savings.  Current market volatility may provide some good opportunities to help boost your retirement nest egg.

Timeless Tips for Investment Success

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

You don’t need to employ a lot of sophisticated techniques and strategies to become a successful investor.  The most effective tools for investment success are simplicity, patience, and discipline.  Below are some guidelines to help you get the most from your investments.

Invest for the long term.  Evaluate your situation, set some goals, create a plan and stick with it.   Keep money that you may need for emergencies and short term living expenses in less volatile investments such as money market accounts, CDs and bonds.   Investments in the stock market should be limited to money that isn’t needed for at least 5 years.  If you keep a long term perspective with the money invested in the stock market you will be less likely to react to short term fluctuations.

Maintain a diversified portfolio.  Your portfolio should be comprised of a variety of different types of investments including stocks, bonds and cash.  The stock portion of your portfolio should include stock mutual funds that invest in companies of different sizes, in different industries and in different geographies.  Don’t chase the latest hot asset class and don’t act on the hot stock tip your buddy shared with you at happy hour.  Create a diversified portfolio and rebalance on an annual basis.  It’s also advisable to avoid investing more than 5% in a single security.

Don’t Time the Market.  Many studies have found that market timing just does not work and can be detrimental to your portfolio.  The so-called experts really have no idea what the market is going to do.  Many analysts earn a living by projecting future market fluctuations when in reality they are no better at predicting the future than you or me.  Peter Lynch sums it up perfectly with the following quote – “More money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”

Keep Your Emotions in Check. The stock market is volatile and there will be years with negative returns.   Limit investment in the stock market to money you won’t need for several years.  Have patience and stay the course.  As experienced after the 2008 correction, the market will eventually rebound.  Don’t succumb to media hype and fear tactics claiming things are different this time. There have always been, and always will be, major events that trigger dramatic fluctuations in the stock market.  Don’t panic this will pass.  Sir John Templeton once said, “The four most dangerous words in investing are: “This Time is Different!”

Be tax smart but don’t let taxes drive your portfolio.  Where possible maximize the use of tax advantaged retirement vehicles such as 401k plans and Roth IRAs.  Place investments with the greatest opportunity for long term growth in tax deferred or tax free retirement accounts.   Save taxes where it makes sense but don’t intentionally sacrifice return just to save a few dollars in taxes.

Avoiding the Stock Market Can be a Risky

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

You may be hesitant to invest in the stock market because it feels too risky.  However, consider the risk you are taking with your financial future by avoiding the stock market.  The primary reason to invest in the stock market is the potential for a much higher return, especially in low interest rate environments.  Most of us need the potential for long term growth provided by the stock market to meet our retirement needs.  If you invest all of your money in fixed income you may struggle just to keep up with inflation and you run the risk of outliving your money.

Historically, stock market returns have been almost double those earned by bonds.  According to the Ibbotson SBBI (stock, bonds, bills and inflation) report, between 1926 and 2014 the average annual return on Small Stock was 12.3%, Large Stock was 10.1%, Government Bonds was 5.5%, Treasury Bills was 3.5% and Inflation was 3%.  This illustrates that investing at least some of your portfolio in stock can provide a much greater opportunity than fixed income to meet your financial goals.

Investing in the stock market is not without risk.  As with all investments, we must take on greater risk to earn a greater return.  However, there are many ways to help manage the volatility of the stock market.  Before investing in stocks make sure your financial affairs are in order.  Pay off your credit cards, establish an emergency fund and put money that will be needed over the next five years into less volatile fixed income investments.  The stock market is for long term investing.  It can provide the opportunity to earn higher long term returns but you can count on some volatility along the way.  By creating a buffer to cover short term needs you will be less likely overreact to fluctuations in the market and sell when the market is down.

You can also buffer stock market risk by creating a well-diversified portfolio comprised of mutual funds invested in stocks or bonds from a variety of different size companies, different industries and a variety of different geographies.  Investing in a single company can be very risky but investment in mutual funds can reduce this risk.  When investing in mutual funds your money is combined with that of other investors and invested, by a professional manager, into a large number of stocks or bonds.  Investing in a large number of companies enables you to spread out your risk.

Dollar cost averaging, where you automatically invest a set amount on a regular basis – usually monthly or quarterly, can also reduce risk.  Rather than investing a large amount all at once, when the market may be high, you gradually invest over time.  With dollar cost averaging you buy more shares when the market is low and fewer shares when the market is high.

Selecting the Right Asset Allocation

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

When investing money, one of the first decisions to be made is your asset allocation.  Asset allocation is the division of your assets into different types of investments such as stock mutual funds, bonds, real estate or cash.  In order to maximize the return on your portfolio it’s crucial to maintain a well-diversified asset allocation.  According to many financial experts, asset allocation may be your single most important investment decision, more important than the specific investments or funds that you select.

There is no one size fits all; the right asset allocation is based on your unique situation which may change as your circumstances or perspective changes.  Some major factors to consider include investment time horizon, the need for liquidity, risk tolerance, risks taken in other areas of your life and how much risk is required to achieve your goals.

Arriving at the appropriate asset allocation is largely a balance between risk and return.  If you want or need a higher return you will have to assume a higher level of risk.  If you have a long investment time horizon, you can take on more risk because you don’t need your money right away and you can ride out fluctuations in the market.  However, if you have a short time horizon you should minimize your risk so your money will be readily available.

If you want to minimize risk, invest in fixed income investments such as money market accounts, certificate of deposits, high quality bonds or short term bond funds.   If you are willing to take on more risk, with the expectation of getting higher returns, consider stock mutual funds.  Generally, avoid investing money needed in the next five years into the stock market.   However, the stock market is an excellent option for long term money.

Regardless of your situation, the best allocation is usually a combination of fixed income and stock mutual funds.  With a diversified portfolio you can take advantage of higher returns found in the stock market while buffering your risk and meeting short term needs with fixed income investments.

Once your target asset allocation is set, rebalance on annual basis to stay on target.   Rebalancing will automatically result in selling investments that are high and buying investments that are low.  Avoid changing your target allocation based on emotional reactions to short term market fluctuations.    Stick to your plan unless there are major changes in your circumstances.

If you are unsure where to start, a good rule of thumb is to subtract your age from 120 to arrive at the percentage you should invest in stock market.  In the past it was customary to subtract from 100 but this has increased as life expectancies and the time one spends in retirement have increased.   In the final analysis, select an asset allocation that meets your specific needs and gives you peace of mind.

Mutual Funds Probably Better Option Than Individual Stocks

 

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Mutual funds are a better option than individual stocks for most investors.  The decision to invest in mutual funds or individual stocks depends on the size of your portfolio, your investment knowledge, your level of time and involvement, your risk tolerance, your ability to make objective investment decisions and your tax situation.

Many investors don’t have enough money to adequately diversify their portfolio across a wide range of individual stocks.   To gain true stock diversification, you need to invest in companies of different sizes, in a wide range of different industry sectors and in a variety of different geographies. Mutual funds enable you to gain this broad diversification by pooling your money with a large number of other investors.

Additionally, mutual funds are professionally managed, making them ideal for individuals with limited investment knowledge or a limited amount of time to research and monitor individual stocks.  Most mutual fund companies have a large staff of managers and research analysts who analyze financial reports, visit companies and keep tabs on the economic and political climate.  It is very difficult for most     investors to devote the time and commitment needed to create and maintain a well-diversified portfolio of individual stocks.

Professional managers also have access to more timely information.  Many investors are tempted to buy and sell individual stock based on current events.  However, the market is relatively efficient which means it quickly responds to new information.  What seems like breaking news has probably already been factored into the price of the stock.

Unfortunately, diversification and professional management does not come without a cost.  Most mutual funds charge an annual management fee of between .25 and 1.25%.

Additionally, when investing your own money it is hard to stay objective.  We have a natural inclination to emotionally react to changes in the market and to become emotionally attached to specific stocks.  It is easier for mutual fund managers to make objective decisions.  Performance is usually better when we stay on course and history shows us that investors in individual stocks trade more frequently than mutual fund investors.

Mutual funds can also be a better option for investors who are risk adverse. By investing in a broadly diversified portfolio of mutual funds, most of your risk will come from fluctuations in the market.  A portfolio comprised of several individual stocks is generally more volatile.  It also carries a higher risk of losing money if a company, whose stock you own, has financial problems or goes out of business.

A disadvantage to owning mutual funds, instead of individual stocks can be a lack of control on when you pay capital gains. This is especially true if you are in a high tax bracket and a lot of your money is invested outside of retirement accounts.  When fund managers sell stock, gains must flow through to the investors as they are earned, not when the fund is sole.

Asset Allocation – the Foundation of Your Portfolio

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Your asset allocation serves as a foundation from which to build your investment portfolio.  An asset allocation identifies the types of investments and the proportion of each you plan to hold in your portfolio.  At a very general level most investments are broken into three categories: stocks, interest earning, and real estate.  Each of these broad categories can be broken down further into hundreds of different options.   The two factors that usually drive an asset allocation are the timeframe in which you will need your money and your personal risk tolerance.  Generally, we strive for a diversified portfolio that provides the highest rate of return for the level of risk we are willing to take.

The first step in developing an asset allocation is to evaluate your current situation and determine when the money you are investing will be used.  Money that is needed in the short term should be placed in interest earning investments, not in real estate or the stock market.  Interest earning investments, such as money market accounts and CDs, are secure but usually provide a rate of return below the rate of inflation.  While it’s important to keep your short term money safe, too much in interest earning investments will stifle the long term growth potential of your portfolio.

Once your short term money has been secured, you can create a diversified portfolio that supports your investment timeframe and risk tolerance.   A great way to diversify is through the use of low cost mutual funds.  Mutual funds enable groups of individuals to pool their money to buy a large number of different companies or government entities.  Mutual funds enable you to maintain a diversified asset allocation by investing in funds with different objectives.  Consider selecting funds that invest in a variety of stocks and bonds in large, medium, and small companies within different industries and different geographical regions.  Your goal is to maintain diversification so that when one category is doing poorly it may be offset by another category that is performing well.   A diversified asset allocation allows you to spread out your risk so you don’t have dramatic losses if a given company or asset class performs poorly.   Additionally, by spreading your asset allocation over a broad range of investments, you may have opportunities that would have been too risky in an undiversified portfolio.

Your asset allocation is the framework of your portfolio – establish a plan that meets your objectives and stick with it!  Avoid making changes to your asset allocation based on emotional reactions to short term changes in the market.   Over time, your portfolio will get out of balance due to fluctuations in the market.   I recommend adjusting your portfolio by rebalancing on an annual basis.  In addition to keeping your asset allocation on target, the need for rebalancing will result in selling stock when it is high and buying when it is low.

Stock Market Investing Requires a Long Term Perspective

 

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

The recent volatility in the market has prompted some investors to question the future direction of the stock market.  Unfortunately, the stock market is impacted by so many factors that it is impossible to predict short term movements.  Over the long term, the stock market has always trended upwards but the path has been anything but smooth.   We could be on the tipping point before a major correction or at the beginning of a long bull market – we just don’t know. 

As a result of this uncertainty, it is impossible to effectively time the market.  Not only do you need to accurately predict when to sell but you also need to know when to re-enter the market.  Even if you select the right time to sell, there is a good chance you will be out of the market when it makes its next big move.  

To compound this issue, decisions to buy and sell are frequently driven by short term emotional reactions.   The fear of losing money can trigger us to make a sudden decision to sell, or the fear of missing an opportunity can cause a knee jerk reaction to buy.  We need to resist these very normal emotional reactions and maintain a long term focus.  The stock market should only be used for long term investing.  If you don’t need your money for at least five to ten years you are more likely to stay invested and ride out fluctuations in the market. 

If you lose your long term perspective, and react to short term emotional reactions, you can get caught up in a very detrimental cycle of buying high and selling low.  An example of a common cycle of market emotions begins when the market drops and you start getting nervous.   Over time you become increasingly fearful of losing money and end up selling your stock investments after the market has dropped considerably.   Then you sit on the sidelines for a while, waiting for the market to stabilize.  The market starts to rebound and you decide to jump back in after that market has gone back up.  Afraid of missing a great opportunity, you buy at the market peak.   This is a self-perpetuating cycle that can be very harmful to your long term investment returns.

To avoid the temptation to time the market and react to emotional triggers, keep a long term perspective.   Focus on what you can control.  Maintain a well-diversified portfolio that is in line with your long term goals and your investment risk tolerance.  Live within your means and maintain an emergency fund of at least four months of expenses.  Invest money that you will need in the short term into safer interest earning investments.   By limiting your stock market investments to long term money, you will be more likely to stay the course and meet your investment goals.

Investment Risk Comes in Many Forms

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

One of the first steps when investing money is evaluating your tolerance for risk.  The amount of return you can earn is heavily dependent on how much risk you are willing to take.   We generally associate investment risk with market risk, or the possibility of losing money due to fluctuations in the stock market.   The stock market is volatile and can be a high risk investment if you have a short time horizon.  However, over long periods of time, the stock market has trended upward.  It’s important to consider your tolerance for stock market risk when building your portfolio.  However, the risk of losing money due to a drop in the stock market is only one of many risks that can adversely impact your financial security.

Although fixed income investments are generally considered safer than the stock market, they are not without risk.  Fixed income investments can include CD’s, bonds, bond funds and cash accounts such as money market or savings accounts.  The most common types of risk associated with fixed income investments are interest rate risk and default risk.

Interest rate risk is the possibility of your bonds dropping in value when interest rates increase.  When interest rates increase, the value of an existing bond decreases to compensate for higher interest rates available on the market.  Generally, if you buy and hold an individual bond till maturity, you will get back the full face value plus any interest that was earned.   However, when you own a bond fund,  you don’t have control over when bonds within the fund are sold.  When interest rates rise, bond managers may be forced to sell bonds at inopportune times due to the large number of withdrawals.

Individual bonds have less interest rate risk than bond funds, but they have a higher degree of default risk.  Default risk is the possibility of losing your principal if the bond issuer becomes insolvent.  Bond funds are able to reduce the default risk by pooling your money with others and investing in a large number of different companies or municipalities.

 Treasury bonds and FDIC insured CD’s provide what is generally considered a risk free rate.  If held to maturity, there is very little chance of losing principal.  Your investment is insured by the Federal government against default risk, and you have control over when you sell.  The primary downfall with this type of investment is the extremely low rate of return.

Investing too much in extremely safe, low earning investments often results in inflation risk.  Money placed in “safe” investments with a low rate of return can’t keep up with inflation, resulting in a negative real return.   You also lose the opportunity to earn a reasonable rate of return needed to grow your retirement account.   It’s all about balance; you need to take some market risk to build and maintain your retirement account and stay ahead of inflation.

The Pitfalls of Market Timing

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Jane Young, CFP, EA

Market timing is one of the most detrimental ways an investor can negatively impact his stock market returns. History shows that investors do not effectively time the market. For the last nine years, DALBAR, Inc., a market research firm, has conducted an annual study on market returns called the Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB). This study has consistently found that returns earned by the individual investor are significantly below that of the stock market indices. The 2013 QAIB report found that during the 20 year period between 1998 and 2012, the average mutual fund investor lagged the stock market indices by 3.96%. This is a significant improvement over the period between 1991 and 2010, in which the average investor lagged the mutual fund indices by 5.1%. According to Dalbar, “No matter what the state of the mutual fund industry, boom or bust: Investment results are more dependent on investor behavior than on fund performance. Mutual fund investors who hold on to their investments are more successful than those who time the market.”
The stock market is counterintuitive in that the best time to sell is usually when the market seems to be doing well, and the best time to buy is usually when the market is doing poorly. As investors, our decisions are frequently driven by emotion rather than cognitive reasoning. We frequently overreact to emotions of fear and greed which throws numberswiki.com

us onto an investment roller coaster. When the stock market goes up we start to feel more and more optimistic, and as the market rises higher we get caught up in a state of euphoria. Our sense of greed kicks in and we don’t want to miss the opportunity to make money, so we buy when the market is high. The market may stay up for a while but eventually the economic cycle changes and stock prices start to drop. Initially we rationalize that this is temporary, or just a minor correction. As the market continues to drop we become more and more concerned. Soon our sense of fear kicks in, we start to panic and we sell at the wrong time. If we don’t recognize the dangers of this emotion driven cycle we are deemed to repeat it.
In addition to our intrinsic emotional response, we are bombarded by sensationalized news and advertising campaigns to influence us to change the course of our investment strategy. Don’t get caught up in the hype about the next big investment craze. Your best course of action is to develop and follow an investment strategy that supports your tolerance for risk and investment timeframe. The stock market is volatile and is best suited for long term investing. Time is needed to absorb fluctuations in the market. Keep short term money in fixed income investments. You will be less tempted to time the market in a well-diversified portfolio specifically designed for your investment time horizon.

Stock Can Be a Good Option in Retirement

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jane M. Young

As we approach retirement, there is a common misconception that we need to abruptly transition our portfolios completely out of the stock market to be fully invested in fixed income investments.   One reason to avoid a sudden shift to fixed income is that retirement is fluid; it is not a permanent decision. Most people will and should gradually transition into retirement.  Traditional retirement is becoming less common because life expectancies are increasing and fewer people are receiving pensions. Most people will go in and out of retirement several times.  After many years we may leave a traditional career field for some well-deserved rest and relaxation.  However, after a few years of leisure we may miss the sense of purpose, accomplishment, and identity gained from working.  As a result, we may return to work in a new career field, do some consulting in an area where we had past experience or work part-time in a coffee shop.

Another problem with a drastic shift to fixed income is that we don’t need our entire retirement nest egg on the day we reach retirement.   The typical retirement age is around 65, based on current Social Security data, the average retiree will live for another twenty years. A small portion of our portfolio may be needed upon reaching retirement but a large percentage won’t be needed for many years.   It is important to keep long term money in a diversified portfolio, including stock mutual funds, to provide growth and inflation protection.   A reasonable rate of growth in our portfolio is usually needed to meet our goals. Inflation can take a huge bite out of the purchasing power of our portfolios over twenty years or more.   Historically, fixed income investments have just barely kept up with inflation while stock market investments have provided a nice hedge against inflation.

We need to think in terms of segregating our portfolios into imaginary buckets based on the timeframes in which money will be needed.  Money that is needed in the next few years should be safe and readily available.  Money that isn’t needed for many years can stay in a diversified portfolio based on personal risk tolerance.  Portfolios should be rebalanced on an annual basis to be sure there is easy access to money needed in the short term.

A final myth with regard to investing in retirement is that money needed to cover your retirement expenses must come from interest earning investments.  Sure, money needed in the short term needs to be kept in safe, fixed income investments to avoid selling stock when the market is down.  However, this doesn’t mean that we have to cover all of our retirement income needs with interest earning investments.  There may be several good reasons to cover retirement expenses by selling stock.   When the stock market is up it may be wise to harvest some gains or do some rebalancing.  At other times there may be tax benefits to selling stock.

 

Mutual Funds May be Your Best Option

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jane M. Young

Generally the typical investor is better off investing in stock mutual funds than in individual stocks. A mutual fund is an investment vehicle where money from a large number of investors is pooled together and invested by a professional manager or management team.  Mutual fund managers invest this pool of money in accordance with a predefined set of goals and guidelines.

One of the primary benefits of investing in stock mutual funds is the ability to diversify across a large number of different stocks.  With mutual funds, you don’t need a fortune to invest in a broad spectrum of stocks issued by large and small companies from a variety of different industries and geographies.  Diversification with mutual funds reduces risk by providing a buffer against extreme swings in the prices of individual stocks.   You are less likely to lose a lot of money if an individual stock plummets. Unfortunately, you are also less likely to experience a huge gain if an individual stock skyrockets.

Another benefit of stock mutual funds over individual stocks is that less time and knowledge is required to create and monitor a portfolio.  Most individual investors do not have the time, expertise, or resources to select and monitor individual stocks.  Mutual funds hire hundreds of analysts to research and monitor companies, industries and market trends.   It is very difficult for an individual to achieve this level of knowledge and understanding across a broad spectrum of companies.  Mutual fund managers have the resources to easily move in and out of companies and industries as investment factors change.

Most individual investors appreciate the convenience of selecting and monitoring a diversified portfolio of mutual funds over the arduous task of selecting a large number of individual stocks.   Stock mutual funds are a good option for your serious money.  However, if you really want to play the market and invest in individual stocks, use money that you can afford to lose.

For diehard stock investors, there are some advantages to investing in individual stocks.  Many stock mutual funds charge an annual management fee of between .50% and 1% (.25% for index funds).  With individual stocks, there is a cost to buy and sell the stock but there is no annual management fee associated with holding stock.

Another advantage of individual stocks is greater control over when capital gains are recognized within a non- retirement account.  When you own an individual stock, capital gains are not recognized until the stock is sold.   In a high income year, you can delay selling your stock, and recognizing the gain, to a year when it would be more tax efficient.   On the other hand, when you invest in a stock mutual fund you have no control over capital gains on stock sold within the fund.  Capital gains must be paid on sales within the mutual fund, before you actually sell the fund.  Mutual funds are not taxable entities, therefore all gains flow through to the end investor.

Are Your Bonds Safe?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jane M. Young

Let’s compare some differences between stocks and bonds.  When you buy a bond you are essentially lending money to a corporation or government entity for a set period of time in exchange for a specified rate of interest.  When you invest in the stock market you assume an ownership position in the company whose stock you are purchasing.  As a result, the value of your investment will fluctuate based on the profit or loss of the underlying company.  With the purchase of a bond the value of your investment hould not fluctuate based on the financial performance of the issuer, assuming it remains solvent.  You will continue to receive interest payments according to the original terms of the agreement until the bond matures.  Upon maturity the amount of your original investment (principal) will be returned to you along with any interest that is due.   As a general rule, stocks are inherently more risky than bonds, therefore investors expect to receive a higher return.

Bonds may appear to be safe but they are not without risk. Currently, there is some risk associated with low interest rates that may not keep up with inflation.  This is especially true with many government bonds. Two additional risks typically associated with bonds include default risk and interest rate risk.

Default risk is the risk that the issuer goes bankrupt and is unable to return your principal.  Most bond issuers are assigned a rating to help investors assess the potential default risk of a bond.   Generally, investors are compensated with higher interest rates when taking a risk on lower rated bonds and receive lower interest rates on higher rated bonds.

Interest rate risk is based on the inverse relationship between interest rates and the value of a bond.  When interest rates increase the value of a bond will decrease and when interest rates decrease the value of a bond will increase. If you hold an individual bond until maturity your entire principal should be returned to you.  You have the control to keep the bond until maturity and avoid a loss.  However, if you need to sell before maturity you may lose some principal. The loss of principal is greater for longer term bonds.  This needs to be weighed against the benefit of a higher interest rate paid on longer term bonds.

Bond mutual funds can provide diversification and reduced default risk because your money is pooled with hundreds of other investors and invested in bonds from a large number of different entities.  If one or two entities within the mutual fund go bankrupt there will be minimal impact on each individual investor.  However, with mutual funds you have less control over interest rate risk.  When interest rates increase, bond fund managers often experience a high rate of withdrawals forcing them to sell bonds at an inopportune time.  This usually results in a loss of principal, the severity of which is greater for longer term bond funds.

Here Are Three Simple Secrets to Investment Success

Jane M. Young, CFP, EA

Build a Portfolio to Support Your Investment Timeframe

Investment timeframe is a major consideration in developing an investment portfolio.  Start with an emergency fund covering about four months of expenses in a cash account with immediate access.  Next, put aside money that is needed over the next few years into fixed income vehicles such as CDs, bonds or bond funds.  Invest long term money into a combination of “stock based” mutual funds and fixed income investments based on your tolerance for investment risk and volatility.  Historically, stock has significantly out-performed fixed income investments but can be volatile during shorter timeframes.  Stock is a long term investment; avoid putting money needed within the next five years in the stock market.

Diversify, Diversify, Diversify

Once your emergency fund is established and funds have been put away for short term needs, it’s time to create a well-diversified investment portfolio.   We cannot predict the next hot asset class but we can create a portfolio that will capitalize on asset categories that are doing well and buffer you from holding too much in asset categories that are lagging.  Think of the pistons in a car, as the value of one asset is increasing the other may be falling.  Ideally, the goal of a well-diversified portfolio is to have assets that move in opposite directions, to reduce volatility, while following a long term upward trend.  It is advisable to diversify based on the type of asset, investment objective, company size, location and tax considerations.

Avoid Emotional Decisions and Market Timing

The best laid plans are worthless if we succumb to our emotions and overreact to short term economic news.  Forecasting the short-term movement of the stock market and trying to time the market is fruitless.   We can’t control or predict how the stock market will perform but we can establish a defensive position to deal with a variety of outcomes.  This is accomplished by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio that supports our goals and investment time horizon. 

The stock market can trigger our emotions of fear and greed.  When things are going well and stock prices are high we become exuberant and want a piece of the action.   When things are bad and stock prices are low we become discouraged and want to get out before we lose it all.  The stock market is counterintuitive, generally the best time to buy is when the market is low and we feel disillusioned and the best time to sell is when the market is riding high and we feel optimistic.  We need to fight the natural inclination to make financial decisions based on emotions.   Don’t let short term changes in current events drive your long term investment decisions.

No one knows what the future holds so focus on what you can control.  Three steps toward this goal are to create a portfolio that meets your investment time horizon, create and maintain a diversified portfolio and avoid emotional decisions and market timing.

 

 

Join us for a Fireside Chat on Annuities vs. Mutual Funds on May 16th

Please join us for lunch and an interactive discussion on annuities vs. mutual funds at Pinnacle Financial Concepts, Inc. on May 16th. Our Fireside Chat will run from 11:30 to 1:00. Please call 260-9800 to RSVP. There is no charge and our Fireside chats are always purely educational!!!

Stay The Course! Ten Steps to Help You Through Uncertain Financial Times

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Jane M. Young, CFP, EA

1. Don’t react emotionally! This will result in a constant cycle of buying high and selling low. Once you sell, you lock in your losses. Stay the course and focus on what you can control.

2. Make sure you have an emergency fund of three to six months of expenses.

3. Evaluate your asset allocation to be sure it is consistent with the timeframe in which you need to withdraw money. The stock market is a long term investment; you should never have short term money in the stock market. Make adjustments to your allocation based on your long term goals and need for liquidity not on fear.

4. Maintain a well diversified portfolio.

5. Pay-off credit cards and high interest consumer debt. Be wary of variable rate loans, lines of credit and mortgages. The downgrade in the U.S. credit rating could hasten an increase in interest rates.

6. Get your personal finances in order. It’s always a good idea to understand your spending and keep expenses in line with your income and financial goals. This is a good time to tighten your belt to be prepared for unexpected emergencies.

7. Use dollar cost averaging to invest new money into the stock market. Volatility in the stock market creates great buying opportunities.

8. Don’t get caught up in the media hype. They are in the business to sell newspapers, magazines and television commercials. Avoid the new hot asset class they are trying to promote this week. Sound investment advice is boring and doesn’t sell newspapers.

9. Take steps to secure or improve your income stream. Are you performing up to speed at work? Are you getting along with co-workers? Should you take some classes to keep your skills current? Are you underemployed or under paid for your education and experience? Consider a second job to pay down excess debt.

10. Stay calm, be patient and focus on making sure your financial plan meets your long term goals and objectives. Stay the course, this too shall pass.

10 Tips for Financial Success

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Jane M. Young CFP, EA

1. Set Goals –
Review your personal values, develop a personal strategic plan, establish specific goals for the next three years and identify action steps for the coming year.

2. Understand Your Current Situation –
Review your actual expenses over the last year and develop a budget or a cash flow plan for the next 12 months. Compare your expenses and your income to better understand your cash flow situation. Are you’re spending habits aligned with your goals? Can or should you be saving more?

3. Have sufficient Liquidity –
Maintain an emergency fund equal to at least four months of expenses in a fully liquid account. Additionally, I recommend having a secondary emergency fund equal to another three months of expenses in semi-liquid investments. Increase your liquidity if you have above average volatility in your life due to job instability, rental properties or other risk factors.

4. Always save at least 10% of your income –
Regardless of whether you are saving to fund your emergency fund or retirement you should always pay yourself first by saving at least 10% of your income. Most of us need to be saving closer to 15% to meet our retirement needs.

5. Pay-off Credit Cards and Consumer Debt –
Learn the difference between bad debt (credit cards) and good debt (fixed-rate home mortgage). Avoid the bad debt and take advantage of the leveraging power of good debt.

6. Take Advantage of the Leveraging Power of Owning Your Home –
Once you have established an emergency fund and have paid off your bad debt start saving for a down payment to purchase your own home.

7. Fully Fund Your Retirement Accounts be a tax smart investor –
Participate in tax advantaged retirement programs for which you qualify. Maximize your Roth IRA and 401k contribution take full advantage of any company match on your 401k. If you are self-employed consider a SEP or Simple plan. Always select investment vehicles that provide the most beneficial tax solution while meeting your investment objectives.

8. Be an Investor, Not a Trader. Don’t time the market and don’t let emotions drive your investment decisions –
Investing in the stock market is a long term endeavor, forecasting the short-term movement of the stock market is fruitless. Avoid emotional reactions to headlines and short-term events. Don’t overreact to sensationalistic journalists or chase the latest investment trends. You can establish a defensive position by maintaining a well diversified portfolio custom tailored to your unique situation. Slow and steady wins the race!
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”  -Peter Lynch, author and former mutual fund manager with Fidelity Investments

9. Don’t Invest in anything you don’t understand and be aware of high fees and penalties –
If it sounds too good to be true and you just can’t get your head around it, don’t invest in it! If you want to invest in complicated products, read the fine print. Be aware of commissions, fees and surrender charges. Be especially wary of products with a contingent deferred sales charge. There is no free lunch, if you are being promised above market returns there is probably a catch. Keep in mind that contracts are written to protect the insurance or investment company not the investor.

10. Diversify, Diversify, Diversify – rebalance annually –
It is impossible to predict fluctuations in the market or to select the next great stock. However, you can hedge your bets by maintaining a well diversified portfolio. Establish an asset allocation that is aligned with your goals, investment timeframe and risk tolerance. You should have a good mix of fixed income and equity based investments. Your equity investments should be spread over a wide variety of large, small, domestic and international companies and industries. Re-balance your portfolio on an annual basis to stay diversified and weed out any underperforming investments.

You Are Invited to our 1st Fireside Chat of 2011 on Thursday, February 10th

Please join us at Pinnacle Financial Concepts, for our first Fireside Chat of 2011. This is a great opportunity to join us in a very relaxed atmosphere to ask questions, and get prepared for filing your tax return. On Thursday, February 10, from 7:30 to 9:00 a.m. our topic will be “There’s No Such Thing as a Stupid Investment Question” with a bonus (apologies to David Letterman) of “The Top 10 Things to Think About During Tax Season”. We’ll have a basic overview of investment definitions and things to know about investments to spur a discussion on the topic.

Please call 260-9800 x2 to reserve your spot at this chat. There is no charge, but we will limit the number of available seats and schedule an overflow date if needed.   Free coffee and donuts will be served and, as always, this is purely educational, no selling!!

Don’t Be Alarmed by the Financial Scaremongers

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Jane M. Young, CFP, EA

About once a week a client asks me about the latest prognostication from some famous so called “financial expert/alarmist.” They are either predicting the demise of the world as we know it or predicting a triple digit increase in the stock market. Maybe I am exaggerating, just a little, but we’ve all experienced those who think they can forecast the future and lead us to “Financial Paradise.” I remind my clients of two things with regard to these “miraculous forecasters.” The first is that most of the TV hosts, radio shows, magazines, and financial authors are in the business of making money by selling magazines, books, and ad space. They are not in the business of providing the consumer with the best possible advice. They want to entertain, tantalize, and terrorize you. This is what gets and keeps our attention. Let’s face it! Good solid investment advice is really boring. It doesn’t change much and doesn’t sell magazines! Secondly, they cannot predict what the market is going to do tomorrow much less six months from now. Historically, no one has ever been able to consistently predict the future of the financial markets. Sure, when you have thousands of people making forecasts a few are bound to get lucky. As a good friend often says, even a blind man eventually hits the bull’s eye.

Develop a solid plan to meet your unique situation and stick with it. Don’t let the financial hype throw you off course. Below are a few quotes that help emphasize the fallacy of placing too much faith in financial forecasts.

“We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasts is to make fortune tellers look good. Short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children” (Warren Buffett).

“Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window” (Peter Drucker).

” We have two classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know – and those who don’t know they don’t know” (J.K. Galbraith, US Economist and diplomat).

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